What are the chances of the U.S. and China going to war? - Shooting Sports Forum


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Old 02-21-2013, 05:46   #1
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What are the chances of the U.S. and China going to war?

This is my opinion on the matter:

You do not attack your enemy while they are strong, you wait until the enemy is weak, then you attack.

China is waiting until the U.S. is very weak, then they may strike.

Our steel mills are gone, we can not build our own computers, few of our engine and car parts are made in the USA. There is no way we can sustain a long term war with China. Once a couple of aircraft are destroyed, we have no way to replace them.

We only have a couple of working shipyards on the east coast. the other shipyards that were used during world war II, korea and vietnam were shutdown in the 1980s and scrapped out.

I found a video on youtube last night that talked about why germany invaded russia during world war ii.

I do not know if its true or not, but stalin was building up troops along the border of poland. To ensure germany was not invaded by russia, hitler struck first.

The united states is pushing russia and china into a corner. We have bases all along the the pacific realm, europe and asia.

Then there is the conflict with japan and china over some islands.

Its not that we will go to war with china, but how much encroaching will china tolerate before they attack us? Will it be north korea, japan,,,, or something else that pushes china over the edge.

China knows they will be overwhelmed by us military, but who said it would be a conventional war? What do you think those chinese ghost cities are for?

If you want to cripple a nations military power, all you have to do is destroy certain key components. One of those key components is wheel bearings, and other vehicle replacement parts. If we can not maintain our trucks, how are we supposed to fight a war?

Where are a lot of our wheel bearings made? China.

A few months ago I did a front end job on my wifes chevy Tahoe. I replaced the rotors, wheel bearings, brake disk pads, and brake calipers. Where were most of the parts made? China.

Computer parts, steel mills, clothes, motors, car parts, wheel bearings, engines,,,, all made overseas.

With just a couple of key military strikes, china could disable the USA. We have not built new power plants in 20 years. Parts of Texas have rolling blackouts during peak summer months. How are we supposed to power new factories when we can barley keep the lights on?
One of the few industries that continues to make weapons of war on a massive scale is the firearms industry.

I look for something major to happen between the US and china sometime between 2013 and 2020. The 2016 and 2020 elections will be a turning out. Sooner or later we are going to need our jobs back.
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Old 02-21-2013, 06:08   #2
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I personally don't think that we will go to war with China anytime soon since they pretty much own our economy anyways. You compare the current situation to Hitler and Russia but what you don't realize is that Russia was not monetarily invested in Germany or vice versa so there was not much on either side to lose economically by going to war with each other.

Now if we default on our debts to China then I could possibly see something like that happening because it would be kinda like owing the Cartel money.. You don't pay you get your knees broke, You still dont pay they rape and beat your wife, you still don't pay? they kill you.. Same thing just on a international scale.
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Old 02-21-2013, 07:18   #3
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Originally Posted by usmc0341 View Post
I personally don't think that we will go to war with China anytime soon since they pretty much own our economy anyways. You compare the current situation to Hitler and Russia but what you don't realize is that Russia was not monetarily invested in Germany or vice versa so there was not much on either side to lose economically by going to war with each other.

Now if we default on our debts to China then I could possibly see something like that happening because it would be kinda like owing the Cartel money.. You don't pay you get your knees broke, You still dont pay they rape and beat your wife, you still don't pay? they kill you.. Same thing just on a international scale.
Yeah, they won't invade us they OWN US!!
If Obama keeps it up, We will become the United states of China!!
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:21   #4
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Its actually a two way street. Yes there are kazillions of Chinese products out there, sometimes it's hard to find something not made there. But what would be the first thing that would happen in a conflict? No trade. This would sink their economy probably ours as well. The companies that outsouce to China may very well move their factories somewhere else and not bring it back. It well take down their government. I do see them continuing to get stronger so that they can get what they want.
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Old 02-21-2013, 10:27   #5
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All of this is well and good-but without our knowledge base-china could'nt even build a "spork"!They are great at copying products but have very few original ideas!
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Old 02-21-2013, 13:49   #6
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Why fight a war, when you can win without a single shot being taken?

What does China and the re-emerging Russian State want?

What do they need?

China has oil and gas resources, but they are buying up areas around the world rich in oil, gas, minerals and other basic building blocks that their economy will need for the next 100 years or more.

The Russians have vast mineral wealth, but have done little to tap it.

So, nobody is going to come to the USA for our oil and gas, or mineral wealth.

As noted, our ability to make stuff is limited, and becoming more so every day. SO no reason to attack there, we have no production ability to take and control.

The area of the world that's ripe to be taken over is Africa. And China has done just that. They have bought up rich mines in Africa, and moved Chinese workers in to run them. Few locals get any jobs, and the Chinese workers are paid so little, there is very little that spills out into the local economy. (So the nations who have sold these mines suffer with no jobs, and no money being spent into the local economy.)

About the only advancement for these African nations is the roads that China builds from the mines to the ports. They often are the only paved roads in good condition in the nation, and that helps with everyone being able to transport goods and people better than before, but that's a small benefit for selling off mineral rights to another country.

My point here is that plenty of land in Africa is there for China to use/take/own. They need nothing from the USA but our dollars, and they know better than anyone, that our currency is seriously over-valued at the moment.

Perhaps in 10 years, after the USD falls to perhaps 25% of it's current value, then China will start buying up the US market like they have done to Africa.

But for now, why fight us, when they can just sit back, and watch us destroy ourselves?
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Old 02-21-2013, 15:47   #7
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We need to stop letting China make every thing for us. They all ready own a lot of are country!
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Old 02-21-2013, 17:23   #8
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Originally Posted by Adjuster View Post
Why fight a war, when you can win without a single shot being taken?

What does China and the re-emerging Russian State want?

What do they need?

China has oil and gas resources, but they are buying up areas around the world rich in oil, gas, minerals and other basic building blocks that their economy will need for the next 100 years or more.

The Russians have vast mineral wealth, but have done little to tap it.

So, nobody is going to come to the USA for our oil and gas, or mineral wealth.

As noted, our ability to make stuff is limited, and becoming more so every day. SO no reason to attack there, we have no production ability to take and control.

The area of the world that's ripe to be taken over is Africa. And China has done just that. They have bought up rich mines in Africa, and moved Chinese workers in to run them. Few locals get any jobs, and the Chinese workers are paid so little, there is very little that spills out into the local economy. (So the nations who have sold these mines suffer with no jobs, and no money being spent into the local economy.)

About the only advancement for these African nations is the roads that China builds from the mines to the ports. They often are the only paved roads in good condition in the nation, and that helps with everyone being able to transport goods and people better than before, but that's a small benefit for selling off mineral rights to another country.

My point here is that plenty of land in Africa is there for China to use/take/own. They need nothing from the USA but our dollars, and they know better than anyone, that our currency is seriously over-valued at the moment.

Perhaps in 10 years, after the USD falls to perhaps 25% of it's current value, then China will start buying up the US market like they have done to Africa.

But for now, why fight us, when they can just sit back, and watch us destroy ourselves?
Once again Adjuster you have hit the nail on the head. China is all over Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Africa and they're not there for war. They buy the land or mineral rights and then pay the locals to protect their workers. They will have most of the precious metals before our ignorant gov't wakes up because they're too busy installing their social justice and destroying capitalism in the US. Same for the EU. China and Russia could care less about Muslims and they just use them like the useful idiots we did when oil was first discovered in the ME. Capitalism will always rule no matter the situation. You may not like it or agree but that's the way it is, has always been, and always will be.
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Old 02-21-2013, 17:26   #9
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Adjuster your point is a good one. For China it's all business. If your a dictator who kills his own people but needs some weapons to kill a few more and have some minerals to spare, China is there for you.
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Old 02-21-2013, 18:24   #10
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We are worth too much to China for them to attack us. But buy or own us? Yeah I wouldnt be surprised if that happened.

Now Russia, Iran, North Korea and an assortment of other American haters I could see taking advantage of a weakness.
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Old 02-21-2013, 18:33   #11
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We are allied with Japan via treaty. If CHina attacks Japan, we will be at war, without a choice in the matter. The situation in the south China sea over territorial feuding with japan is a possibility that is sliding under the radar at the moment.
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Old 02-24-2013, 05:18   #12
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Talking Here's what I think !

I don't think that China would attack us , because they might cause a Wally -World store or two to close and think of all the sales they'd lose !

They need us , as where else would they sell their stuff ?
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Old 02-24-2013, 05:46   #13
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Originally Posted by magnomark View Post
All of this is well and good-but without our knowledge base-china could'nt even build a "spork"!They are great at copying products but have very few original ideas!
They have been and continue stealing products and technology for years and years. Their latest jet fighter is almost a duplicate of ours. What's even more disgusting is the annual amount of $ the US continues to give them in aid. It feels like you've let your worst cousin and family move in your basement, you keep feeding them while going broke, and finally can't take any more and move out and just let them have the house and property. My vote would be to give them California, Oregon, and Washington.
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Old 02-24-2013, 08:45   #14
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Originally Posted by GAMEOVER View Post
My vote would be to give them California, Oregon, and Washington.
Now wait just a dam minute!
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Old 02-24-2013, 15:10   #15
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War is possible, but not in Chinese interests at the moment unless there is a gross miscalculation. War with Japan (limited naval/aerial skirmishes) is more likely over the Senkaku Islands, though probably more for show than anything else.

When conflict with the US does come, I suspect it will start as a mercantile rather than purely military affair - i.e. they will stop accepting our dollars, possibly confiscate US assets, abrogate IP agreements, freeze us out of strategic materials markets, etc. For our part, the US will freeze Chinese assets in the US and put an embargo on food exports.

Remember, that the proximate cause of Pearl Harbor in '41 was the embargo on oil to Japan that Roosevelt orchestrated some months prior to the event. Prior to those events, the US had significant investment in Japan that was wound down during the lead up to the embargo. Once the embargo was a reality, Japan had to neutralize our fleet to allow for the seizure of oil assets throughout East Asia.

I can't see a direct parallel in which China goes to war to seize resources directly, since the main resources they import are food and oil. However, they may well go to war to deny us access to alternate suppliers of manufactured goods. Similarly I could see a conflict in which the US is attempting to limit China's access to strategic resources or markets once they have cut our lifeline of cheap Chinese goods.

It is definitely in China's interest to wait at this juncture, in that the US is a dying superpower. Just last month, the USS Lincoln's ROH (Refueling and OverHaul) was indefinitely delayed, effectively taking one super carrier out of the force equations. The Washington will be coming up on ROH soon and again, no ROH = loss of one carrier.* The Gerald Ford is supposed to launch in 2015 to replace Enterprise, but the fact is that the regime is putting a lot of money into welfare and very little into military matters. The Ford may not launch on time, costing us a 3rd carrier at that point as Enterprise hits her end of lifespan. There are similar force projections on F15 and F16 fighter aircraft indicating that within a decade the US will have lost a significant portion of its military clout without anyone firing a shot.

A parallel to that would be the Falklands conflict in '82. Argentina waited until the Ark Royale (Britain's last large deck carrier) was decommissioned, then pounced in a limited war. At what point the US' military resources will have to be run down for the Chinese generals to decide that it is "safe" to engage in hostilities is unknown to me. That would require significant insights into not only the structure of the Chinese assets (particularly new assets of a secretive nature) but insights into how effective the Chinese regard them to be.

So, is war possible? Yes. Will it be "Red Dawn"? No, probably some sort of aerial/naval conflict over resources half a world away. Is it likely? Not now. Would a proxy war be possible? Yes. Look to N.Korea. If such a thing happens will it affect us, in the US? Bet your bippy it will! Resources are already tight, and with the strain of a war on the US' brittle socialist economy I would expect shortages of food, fuel, rubber for tires, etc that rivals the ammo shortage we are now experiencing. It is exactly such a "black swan event" (military miscalculation leading to a premature war with China or its proxies) that I could see causing the US to destabilize and break into regions.

Sorry for the length of this!
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*RCOH usually takes about 3 years and consists of a complete rebuild on the reactor. Spent nuclear fuel must be removed and fresh fuel added if the carrier is to be operationally ready.

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Old 02-24-2013, 15:26   #16
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China will just call in our debt when the US fails to pay with real money - then they take our most valuable asset - the land itself. All this seems to be where we are heading under our fearless leader's direction.

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Old 02-24-2013, 16:13   #17
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As a veteran who spent his entire career worrying about the PRC, I hate seeing forum posts like this.

Inevitably, the issues that might lead to conflict are simplified into absurdity, and rampant speculation erupts with little regard to several aspects of our relationship with China, including their own military status of forces.

At this point in history, a full scale declared war with any major global player is ridiculously unlikely, almost laughably so.

When I am next at a pc instead of my iPhone, I will happily expound upon my statements.
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Old 02-24-2013, 19:29   #18
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Originally Posted by Jimmy Bones View Post
As a veteran who spent his entire career worrying about the PRC, I hate seeing forum posts like this.

Inevitably, the issues that might lead to conflict are simplified into absurdity, and rampant speculation erupts with little regard to several aspects of our relationship with China, including their own military status of forces.

At this point in history, a full scale declared war with any major global player is ridiculously unlikely, almost laughably so.

When I am next at a pc instead of my iPhone, I will happily expound upon my statements.
I agree, they seem to be content to simply watch us crumble.
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Old 02-24-2013, 22:40   #19
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Old 02-25-2013, 00:17   #20
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Exactly, why shoot, when you can in the case of China, sit back, and make money, while your enemy destroys themselves over entitlements and other forms of greed?

No war needed at this point, and if the American people are stupid enough to let the idiots we have today disarm them, it will make it just that much more easy for China and the rest to regard us as less of a threat should we have something in the future that they want, and we don't want to give them.

That is what war is folks, Theft writ large.

Of all the nations on this planet, and in history, very few have ever given back territory taken in war. The USA stands as a very unique player in this regard, and our bases and other outposts, treaties and agreements aside, the USA has not kept land hard fought and won with the blood and treasure of our nation.

It's weird, and many people around the world see it as a sign of weakness, especially today. (I don't think it was as much of an issue in the 1950's, everyone had just watched the USA crank up it's war machine, and when it reached it's peak, the amount of soldiers and machines of war being produced was pretty insane.)

No "enemy" would dare to oppose, if they cared to live very long that is.

But as a nation, we did not keep the land we won, gave it back, and in all cases, left it nicer than we found it/destroyed it during the war. (Where possible that is.)

Heck, if I was a 3rd world leader, I'd push for attack on the USA, get them to come blow us up, and then rebuild the place nice and right from the start. (Water/power/schools/roads/bridges etc.)
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Old 02-25-2013, 05:06   #21
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The ignorance of AlwaysWrong ^ is truly disgusting.

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Old 02-25-2013, 05:21   #22
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As I'd posted earlier, it is unlikely at this time since it is not in Chinese interests to act overtly while we're busy self destructing. But it is never zero and it is deceiving ourselves to think so.

Gross miscalculations do occur, and countries do act in ways that hindsight shows is against their self interest. And its not hard to find a long series of them in recent history.

German war plans prior to 1939 were for a general war to start no sooner than 1945, as Hitler repeatedly promised his generals. Hitler really did think the Brits and French would cave on Poland - his political calculus said that by inviting the Soviets to conquer half the country with him, the Brits and French would be in an untenable position. How could they declare war on Germany but not the Soviets? Well, he miscalculated and they could.

In 1941 the Japanese thought that they could win a battle against the US and sue for peace once they had seized the East Asian assets they needed for their economy to function. It didn't work that way. And when we did come on, it was not a general war of battleships at all. Once again, their top leadership goofed, not only as to the intensity of our reaction, but also with respect to the form of it. Yes, they sank our battleships. So we developed a new style of warfare using fleets of aircraft carriers, which we could produce faster. Our rate of production of heavy armor plating was the bottleneck in battleship production so we sidestepped it with cheaper, quicker to build ships that never came within sight of the enemy battleships. Ironically they led the way using aircraft carriers at Pearl Harbor and failed to see that others could do the same.

We made plenty of mistakes too - look at the fiasco with the MK13 and MK14 torpedoes that crippled US submarine warfare during the opening months of the war for example.

Then look to June of '41 with Barbarossa. The Germans have traditionally been strapped for resources, and the Soviets were sending large amounts of supplies to the Germans to buy time. Trainloads of vitally needed supplies were flowing in to Germany from Russia, without the Germans having to fire a shot. It certainly was not in the German immediate interests to "go" when they did, but they did. Soviet forward troop placements were not well suited to modern armored warfare which was a big reason the Germans brushed through them as easily as they did. And the Germans were blissfully unaware that there was an actual reason to hurry - introduction of the superior T34 and KV series tanks was just starting in 1940.

Today in China the economy is not so healthy as you may think. They have a "modern" population about the size of the US with a large rural population living in poverty. If they think they're facing an interior revolt they may well try a limited conflict with one of their neighbors (Japan being most likely) as a distraction. Those things get out of hand quite easily.

War in the immediate future is unlikely but never impossible. It is always a mistake to assume that countries don't make mistakes.

All the best,
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Old 02-25-2013, 05:24   #23
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Good post ^

There were a number of close calls with the Soviet Union, yet direct war was always avoided. Taken as a whole, the Chinese leadership is disciplined and focused. An actual war with the US would be the worst disaster they could bring upon China - and themselves. So while a mistake or series of mistakes, on their part, involving perhaps Korea or Japan, could force them into circumstances in which war is unavoidable, it seems almost entirely unlikely. Something on the order of 0.1% in the next few decades, IMO.

One wild card is the Chinese government's involvement in hacking US government and corporate networks, and our government's responses. But will it lead to war? I do not think so.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:21   #24
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Originally Posted by freesw View Post
One wild card is the Chinese government's involvement in hacking US government and corporate networks, and our government's responses. But will it lead to war? I do not think so.
Thats the scariest part, not their new fighter (which is a copy of an earlier russian design), or their fledgling 1st world navy, or their army. They have literally turned infomation into a weapon in a way western stratigests did'nt think possible, and the thing about being hacked is usually you dont know until its too late.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:50   #25
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Originally Posted by grumpy_old_man View Post
As I'd posted earlier, it is unlikely at this time since it is not in Chinese interests to act overtly while we're busy self destructing. But it is never zero and it is deceiving ourselves to think so.

Gross miscalculations do occur, and countries do act in ways that hindsight shows is against their self interest. And its not hard to find a long series of them in recent history.
Props. Good one.
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