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Old 02-03-2012, 06:35   #1
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The writing is on the wall with iran

Part 1

Israel may strike Iran sometime this spring or summer - I got a bad feeling about this.

Growing concern Israel may strike Iran this spring - CBS News


Part 2

Iran warns world of coming great event. Ayatollah Khamenei says the enemies of Islam and the Great Satan (The US) will soon be defeated.

Iran warns world of coming great event


This is my personal opinion, so take this with a grain of salt, or maybe even a truckload of salt.

I feel that Iran has positioned itself to be made a victim.

China and India both rely on crude oil from Iran. Anything that disrupts the supply of crude to either India or china will cause ripples in the economies of those nations.

What I fear, if any nation strikes iran, china will jump in to protect its supply of oil.

I can see China sending anti-air missiles to Iran to protect the oil fields and refineries. Hopefully, no chinese troops will be involved. But then again, maybe china will send troops across the border like what happened with Korea.

The US is in no position to be in disagreement with china. China supplies a massive amount of our electronics. To cut off that supply of products would have a devastating effect on the US economy in the short term.

In the long term, cutting off a supply of products from china might help the US economy, as it would spur construction of new factories to replace the products from china.

The main question I ask myself, can the US fight an extended war with only our onshore manufacturing plants? In other words, "if" we went to war with someone like China, and we were no longer receiving shipments of computer parts, engine parts, computers, raw materials,,, how long could the US sustain its wartime efforts.
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:07   #2
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Yes but that relationship with China is a two way street, much like their relationship with Iran. Both countries rely on each other and that is what makes up the global economy. I agree that disruptions between supply routes can cause economic stress by raising prices. But China relies on us more than they rely on Iran, that is for sure. They will get the crap end of the stick because nobody will consume as much as we do to make up for their lack in sales, and it's not only electronics. The same goes for India, these types of countries have come to rely on our massive consumption of their goods, and in many cases it is American based companies that produce the things that they produce at a cheaper cost.

Is Iran trying to develop a missile that could reach America? - CSMonitor.com

So now Israel is claiming that Iran may have a rocket that could reach American soil, what a shock. What better way to get our attention than to claim something like this. I highly doubt that Iran would shoot an ICBM at the continental US, and I doubt that they even possess such a thing. Just more propaganda to throw on the growing Iran fire.
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Old 02-03-2012, 09:12   #3
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I can't believe any thing that is printed by tabloids or diseminated on the news anymore about the middle east.We have so many types of arial observation platforms in use over those areas(less one drone)that if a dog pees on a tree the cia probably sees it!The "news" that we hear is just what the govt wants us to believe!Google earth has better information than the media!
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:09   #4
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There's no time like the present,,, go to work now !!!!
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:19   #5
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China's involvement in a war with Iran doesn't seriously concern me. As another poster already mentioned, China seriously depends on us to keep their economy going. In addition, they hold a lot of our debt. While normally China having our debt is a weakness in this case I believe it is a strength because simply not paying only Chinese debt holders would add even more problems to their economy. I think they would wisely stay out of the conflict. Now that doesn't mean they won't be the loudest protestor in the world, they probably will be, but actual military involvement is probably rare.

What is more likely is Iran's lack of oil on the market might drive world wide supplies to all time lows and prices to levels never before seen. I do believe it is possible that a full conflict in Iran could drive gas prices in the U.S. to $10 or $12 per gallon for the short term. Unfortunately even in the short term those types of prices would completely cripple our economy and cause severe shortages at store shelves where truckers simply couldn't afford to drive at those prices. This would case a 3rd Great Depression (Obama is already insuring we are in the 2nd one currently) but would probably be as bad or far worse than the one caused in 1929. I believe it could even cause short term uprisings and violence. I think people should be preparing for a war with Iran. I believe it is coming.
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Old 02-03-2012, 12:39   #6
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Not to downplay the danger
US Concerns Grow Over Possible Israeli Strike on Iran | News | English

but I agree with Bang.

We can't stop Israel from doing anything in the short run, but if they miscalculate and start a war they can't finish, the relationship between the US and Israel will never be the same again. IMO, Israel is safer living with a nuclear-armed Iran, than trying to live in the present and future middle east without any ally. There is still a very good chance of internationally isolating Iran if they really do begin to take steps to produce weapons. And, should Iran be known to be taking those steps, I would not rule out backchannel warnings from the US that we no longer oppose Israeli action, or that we'll do it ourselves.

Iran is convinced they need nuclear weapons to make an attack on them more dangerous, so paradoxically, the more danger they perceive from Israel and the US, the more convinced they are of the need for nuclear arms. I do not buy the "national martyr syndrome" theory. Nuclear weapons have nuclear fingerprints, even a weapon smuggled into Israel (a technical impossibility for the foreseeable future) can be traced, and the Iranians know that. Firing it with a rocket from Lebanon could be done within a few years - maybe. Look how much trouble North Korea has had with their early attempts. But the fingerprint would still trace back to Iran and Iran knows it.

Of course Israel is terrified of the prospect of a nuclear armed Iran, just as their neighbors have been terrified of a nuclear armed Israel for decades. One of the realities of technology is, no one keeps the monopoly forever. Even so, everything short of an out and out attack should be done to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.

I'm sure our diplomats are pulling strings to convince the Israeli government not to act unilaterally. A few Israelis are obviously hyping the danger, probably to try to sway US public opinion. The reality is, the further Iran edges towards initiating nuclear arms production, the more likely we can persuade Russia and China to agree to sanctions. Iran cannot afford that. That is how Iran can be prevented from developing nuclear weapons without war.

But one never knows. Israel has always been a wild card.
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Last edited by freesw; 02-03-2012 at 13:15. Reason: kept thinking of more stuff
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Old 02-03-2012, 12:50   #7
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Too bad left stopped us from being energy independent, we could let em kill each other off.
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Old 02-03-2012, 13:16   #8
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Let's see...

Drill ban in the GOM.
Pretty much stop/slow down/limit all other drilling in the USA.
Create economic havoc, and generate hate for corporations.
Push the class warfare button, multiple times, and continue to do so.
Spend a trillon and get very little in return.
Spend hundreds of millions, and even a few billion, and get nothing back from companies like Solyndra and other "green jobs."
Kill a pipeline that would supply oil from massive fields in Canada...
Kill coal fired plants via the EPA.
Shut down plans for non-green power plants, and spend billions on nonsense like PV that supplies just a fraction of the power we actually need...

I'd say that Obama has acomplished his goals, and we are if anything, even more dependent on oil and energy from outside our nation than ever before.

Why worry folks? Obama will save us all from danger.

After all, he's the smartest President of the USA ever.
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Old 02-03-2012, 13:24   #9
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There you go again Adjuster.

Let's see, indeed. Where to begin? How about your first claim.

Originally Posted by Adjuster View Post
Drill ban in the GOM.
Bzzzt.

U.S. to Open New Areas to Offshore Drilling

Obama Administration Announces New Gulf Oil Exploration Deal - US News and World Report

Why do you just post whatever you feel like, Adjuster, without even bothering to check its accuracy? Why?

-------------------------

Furthermore,
Looking at your heating bills or gas prices, you may find it surprising that the United States is enjoying a mini oil boom. It's producing more crude oil and, for the first time in decades, has become a net exporter of petroleum products such as jet fuel, heating oil and gasoline.

The U.S. exported more oil-based fuels than it imported in the first nine months of this year, making it likely that 2011 will be the first time since 1949 that the nation is a net exporter of such goods, primarily diesel.

That's not all. The U.S. has reversed another decades-long trend. It began producing more crude oil in 2008 than the year before and accelerated that upswing 3% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period in 2010. That production has helped reduce U.S. imports of crude oil by about 10% since 2006.
...
Oil boomlet sweeps U.S. as exports and production rise
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Old 02-03-2012, 13:37   #10
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Yes, ForSoWrong, that's why we have such low prices at the pump right?

And my heating bill has gone down?

The price of goods that take diesel fuel to grow and ship are all down too right?

It's all nonsense except for the reality of the prices.

When there is more supply, prices go down.

Everything else is just Bull $hit.
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Old 02-03-2012, 15:55   #11
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"Adjuster" = AlwaysWrong.



Originally Posted by Adjuster View Post
Yes, ForSoWrong, that's why we have such low prices at the pump right?

And my heating bill has gone down?

The price of goods that take diesel fuel to grow and ship are all down too right?

It's all nonsense except for the reality of the prices.

When there is more supply, prices go down.

Everything else is just Bull $hit.
Right there in my first post, AlwaysWrong, we see that
The U.S. exported more oil-based fuels than it imported in the first nine months of this year, making it likely that 2011 will be the first time since 1949 that the nation is a net exporter of such goods, primarily diesel.
and had you actually read any of the article, you would have also noted,
"We have some of the better refineries in the world — certainly the most complex," he [Martin Tallett, president of EnSys Energy, a Massachusetts-based oil industry consulting firm] says, adding they can handle different types of crude oil and shift their product line quickly to meet demand. He says they've upped production of diesel fuel, which is in great demand worldwide, and reduced that for gasoline, now in surplus.

Furthermore, Mr. AlwaysWrong,
American consumers benefit little from the U.S. oil boomlet, because their fuel prices depend heavily on a global oil market that remains tight and has probably already peaked in production, says Jeremy Rifkin, author of The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, the Economy and the World.

And P.S., AlwaysWrong, you're also wrong about CO2. CO2 is a heat trapping gas that in sufficient atmospheric concentrations, such as we now have (380ppm), drives global warming. It doesn't matter how often you claim otherwise, you'll always be wrong.
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Old 02-03-2012, 16:42   #12
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Originally Posted by freesw View Post
"Adjuster" = AlwaysWrong.

Oh, that's just witty indeed....



Right there in my first post, AlwaysWrong, we see that


and had you actually read any of the article, you would have also noted,

Yes, gas and energy prices are higher than they should be? Why is that ForSoWrong? Could supply and demand have anything to with it, not just the supply of today, but the predicted future supply? When GWB just "talked" about opening up offshore drilling, gas and oil prices dropped, and remained down until the media was whipping up the "crisis" that got Obama elected.

Furthermore, Mr. AlwaysWrong,



And P.S., AlwaysWrong, you're also wrong about CO2. CO2 is a heat trapping gas that in sufficient atmospheric concentrations, such as we now have (380ppm), drives global warming. It doesn't matter how often you claim otherwise, you'll always be wrong.
Ah, you claim that 380ppm is enough to drive warming, yet that's never been the case in any historical record. Not one.
Let me say it clearly, so you can understand it.

None. At NO time in the history of the planet, has a 380ppm concentration of Co2 driven global warming. The record clearly shows that Co2 changes FOLLOW warming and cooling of the planet/climate, but do not drive it.

Indeed, if you go back to where there was 5 or 10 times as much Co2 on this planet, and perhaps Co2 might have become as much as 20% of the global warming gas as a percentage of the total, even then, it's doubious that Co2 DROVE warming.


What drives warming of our planet and cliamate?

Go outside on a clear day, and at noon, look up.

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Old 02-03-2012, 16:47   #13
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You're entitled to your own opinions, AlwaysWrong, but not your own facts.

No sooner do I disprove one of your endless false claims, do three more plop forth.

By the Flying Spaghetti Monster, you are a dolt.
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Old 02-03-2012, 17:00   #14
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Cool thing about me, is the facts back up my point of view, while on your side?

You have liberal propaganda to fall back on.

Good luck with that.

And for the record, you have yet to prove me wrong on anything there ForSoWrong.
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Old 02-03-2012, 22:56   #15
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The issue at hand has nothing to do with the price of oil or our dependence on the middle east for energy. This has to do with our supposed allies acting on their own to take on a threat that may not even exist. Israel will always live in fear of attacks, whether Iran is wiped out, or whether they (or we) do nothing. It will always be there, and we appear at the moment reluctant to commit to attacking a nation that has done nothing to us up to this point. It appears that Israel may attack on their own, and I am ok with that, but I am not naive to think that we won't be dragged into the conflict down the road. I say if Israel attacks Iran unprovoked, and without our approval, then they should have to lie in that bed. I propose that Iran is of no real threat to us, whether they have a nuclear weapon or not. Having a nuke doesn't mean they will use it. Imagine the retaliation unleashed on their country if they were to detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere. This is not our fight, and there is no benefit to us if we decide to participate.
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Old 02-04-2012, 02:59   #16
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Guess what!!!
FreeSW is smart, and the rest of you (meaning Adjuster and, if they read this, Dell Paco and shootnpoop) are stupid.

Study links dim wits to conservative ideology € The Register

I read it on the interwebs, so it must be true!

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Old 02-04-2012, 08:39   #17
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Israel is safer living with a nuclear-armed Iran, than trying to live in the present and future middle east without any ally.
The main problem with that foreign policy idea is that Israel won't have a future, never mind the allies part if Iran gets the bomb. Iran has already publicly stated many times they want to wipe Israel off the map. To say that all this is just talk, saber rattling and bluster is a very dangerous gamble to take; especially if Iran has their finger on the launch switch of a bunch of nuclear weapons.

Metaphorically, if someone has repeatedly told me they will kill me and then suddenly they get their hands on a gun and point it at me I am going to believe they will shoot. I certainly won't bet my life and future on the idea it was all just talk and they didn't really mean it. If there is a cop standing nearby, but he won't take any real action to stop the guy other than maybe telling him he will fine him, which is the equivalent of our policy of economic sanctions on Iran that simply aren't working, than I have no choice but to act on my own.

Israel can't afford to assume any differently. If the U.S. and other major world powers won't step up to help stop Iran or explain in clear undeniable terms to the world that an attack on Israel is an attack on the U.S. and I am not even sure that would dissuade Iran, than Israel doesn't have a choice but to act alone.
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