Russia & Georgia clash over Osetia, ostensibly

[freesw]

Is anyone else beginning to wonder if there is more to this than a tragic miscalculation by Georgian President Saakashvili and an irredentist reaction by the Kremlin?

Georgia had 2000 troops in Iraq that are now recalled; the third largest coalition presence (Britain being second of course). This is indicative of Georgia's ties to the United States. Apparently there is lots of oil in Georgia and Russian planes tried to bomb but missed a major pipeline. And there are US corporate interests at stake. Cheney is snarling. When President Bush looked Putin in the eye in Beijing, I really wonder what he saw in Putin's soul, this time.

No cause for worry, I don't believe, but warrants attention.

[raccol]

I’m sure this could have been resolved without an invasion. I’m thinking it was both a miscalculation on Georgia’s part and the excuse Russia had been looking for. Russia invaded because, among other reasons, Putin wanted to remind the world that Russia is still a dominant world power, both military and, thanks to current oil and natural gas prices, economically.

So…who do you want with the title of Commander-in-Chief? Do you want a man who only has 143 actual days of work in the U.S. Senate and whose previous experience is generally limited to being a ‘community organizer’ and a part-time law professor ... or a man with the experience and determination of one John McCain? An appeaser wannabe or a proven fighter?

Think long and hard before exercising your non-existent 'right to vote (http://www.tompaine.com/articles/the_fundamental_right_you_dont_have.php)' for president.

[AZ-Mike]

I don't know if it was on this board or another, but my very first response to a post about this was that this has nothing to do with a break away province and everything to do with rebuilding the USSR.

The Russians have amped up their cold war activities of late. They have restarted all of their cold war exercises, they are flying sorties into our territory with their bear bombers, they are doing manuevers close to our territories etc.

Add to all of that that Putin (and other Russian politicians) have removed many of the democratic reforms there and you have a recipe for a new cold war. A war we will lose because we no longer have the mechanism in place to actually compete this time because we allowed every POTUS since Reagan to dismantle our industry here etc.

This new possible cold war and the current state of our economy are positive things IMO because it will get Americans off their asses and hopefully they will realize that outsourcing everything to China isn't a great idea as it leaves us vulnerable to being invaded or worse.

[freesw]

Turns out there isn't all that much oil in Georgia, but a million barrels a day are pumped through the pipelines that go through it from Azerbaijan to Turkey. And that it was in fact an attack by Kurdish rebels that shut down the pipeline a few days ago:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080807/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_pipeline_fire

Russian planes did bomb the pipeline, but didn't do critical damage, according to the Georgians. It now appears Russia simply intended to bomb Georgia into submission by attacking infrastructure generally, and that they've succeeded, not surprisingly. The Russians say "Georgia has suffered enough" and that the attacks have ceased; Georgia say they're still attacking, and France is trying to broker a cease fire. It's impossible to tell but it doesn't look like Russia is trying to retake Georgia, but rather to ensure that the two breakaway provinces are able to remain independent of Georgia. Whether they'll eventually be incorporated into Russia of course remains to be seen.

No question about it, that Russia is flexing their muscles. The message to any of the smaller countries that constituted the former Soviet Union is unmistakable: don't mess with the ethnic Russians in your territories, and if you have trouble with us, the west won't save you. The former Soviet Union approximated the Russian empire territorially (there were differences, including Finland, for example), and it's to be expected that nationalists in Russia fully intend to reconstitute the empire as much as they can. Which doesn't bode well for ethnic minorities on the periphery.

Whatever happened to a "democratic" Russia? Same thing that happened to native America and northern Mexico in the 19th century. We had a democratic republic and look what happened to them. Russia just views as this as their own version of "manifest destiny." Most enlightened people prefer self-determination, but history often does not.

[mercdank]

A war we will lose because we no longer have the mechanism in place to actually compete this time because we allowed every POTUS since Reagan to dismantle our industry here etc.

How exactly would we be on the losing side of another cold war with Russia? USA is still number one in the world as far as technology, military prowess and overall dominance in any sort of conflict. What mechanisms are we so direly without?

[moonie42]

AZ-Mike, very interesting insights on this topic. Since much of the world is engaged in some form of "war on terror" at this point, at your prompting, I now wonder if the Russians are looking at this as an opportunity to reacquire the republics constituting the USSR, and really launch another cold war. I also wonder what their relationship to China is and will be. Ally, non-player, outright threat? If there is any sort of adversarial posture between those two countries, I can see the possibility of a cold war quickly turning hot.

Intersting....much to ponder and more to watch.

[mnottfam]

Well, for starters, we've basically closed down our manufacturing ability and technical superiority and allowed it to all be sent overseas. Heaven help us if we ever again need to ramp up a production for war, like we were so capable of doing for WWII. Never again, as long as we continue to send everything over to our traditional friends, the Communist Chinese. I cannot for the life of me fathom how Rush thought that Mr. Clinton's signing NAFTA was a "good thing" for America. Since when is AIDING American companies to shut down their domestic facilities and send all their production over our borders a "good thing"? First time I've ever disagreed strongly with Rush. I wonder if, after seeing the problems that have come from it, he's changed his tune?

The bottom line--We've given our nation's future away to the rest of the world, and are now on the spiraling decline of ever-reducing productivity and ever-increasing welfare roles. Can we pull out of it before it's too late? I doubt it.

[moonie42]

How exactly would we be on the losing side of another cold war with Russia? USA is still number one in the world as far as technology, military prowess and overall dominance in any sort of conflict. What mechanisms are we so direly without?

I don't necessarily think we'd loose another cold war, but I think we would be in for quite a rude awakening. We've sent a large percentage of our industrial power offshore (China, Taiwan, etc.) due to the financial "benefits" of lower production costs, fewer environmental regulations, looser labor laws, lower pay rates, etc. We've got fewer and fewer people learning trades, fewer and fewer studying engineering and other sciences. Add to that the US populace's growing sense of entitlement and laziness, and we're in some hot water. Since manifest destiny was just tossed around, I think it's also fair to mention the US playing global police man has also strained and decentralized our military resources (though on the up side, we have many more trained and experienced soldiers).

Would we be able to turn it around? Most likely...if nothing else, Americans can stand up when they have to....it'll just take time to stretch out and get limber again. Industry can't be built overnight.

[freesw]

I'd guess it would tend to make European acceptance of it more likely.

[Carbine85]

This was a very well calculated invasion by the future USSR. It is all about controlling Georgia, the ports in the Black Sea, the oil pipe line and the pipe line that the USA and Georgia are building. It also has to do with preventing them from joining NATO. Putin is in full control and has every desire to rebuild the empire and the KGB. They know that we can't do anything about it and everyone will continue to buy Russian oil.
I was surprised that Georgia didn't have better air defenses and anti tank weapons.
I believe that there is a whole lot more to this then Georgia trying to control territory that is theirs. The USSR is rebuilding and alive.

[freesw]

I'm just now hearing a report that Georgia was given a "green light" by "the west" (unspecified) to go ahead and assert control over South Osetia. This would be explosive if true. It would be worse than the Bay of Pigs. Totally unsubstantiated so far, it is a claim that some are now making.

It has some plausibility because, why would Saakashvili be so reckless as to act independently, knowing as he must the nature of the Russia under Putin and Medvedyev? Yet, it's even harder to comprehend why any western government or governments would "green light" something like that. No explanation for Georgia's action makes sense.

To add to the confusion, McCain is speaking out unequivocally on the side of Georgia, while the administration is taking a more nuanced approach. Something to remember next time Obama is accused of speaking as if he's already president with regard to foreign affairs (which neither candidate should do).

[gossman]

So…who do you want with the title of Commander-in-Chief? Do you want a man who only has 143 actual days of work in the U.S. Senate and whose previous experience is generally limited to being a ‘community organizer’ and a part-time law professor ... or a man with the experience and determination of one John McCain? An appeaser wannabe or a proven fighter?

Think long and hard before exercising your non-existent 'right to vote (http://www.tompaine.com/articles/the_fundamental_right_you_dont_have.php)' for president.

Again, length of time doesn't really matter to me, the quality of the leader is what matters. And I still am not voting for either.<_< Think of this being a great excuse for others, no matter what happens in the fall elections, who ever loses the election and blame me and others of my ilk. :o

[AZ-Mike]

How exactly would we be on the losing side of another cold war with Russia? USA is still number one in the world as far as technology, military prowess and overall dominance in any sort of conflict. What mechanisms are we so direly without?

I think others have posted very good responses to this but I would like to add some things.

Since the end of WW II the US has been selling out to world opinion and other nonsense. Notice how we have not been able to win a war or win one decisively since the last big one? Ever wonder why?

We have been getting our asses handed to us by dirt farmers for 60 years now; the Korean conflict still isn't over. How would any odds makers rate the US against a China or Russia? Well if it were me making the odds they would be very low.

Now factor in that we have outsourced almost everything. We don't have the manufacturing facilities to convert to wartime production anymore. God forbid it's the Chinese we have to fight because they make most of our stuff now as it is.

The point I was making above is very simple:

Maybe a renewed cold war will be the stimuli needed to get the complacent American population into the game. Maybe we will start to understand that "globalism" and "outsourcing" are not good for our nation on such a large scale and that we need to keep doing stuff domestically. Maybe we will begin to look at the UN for exactly what it is and get out of it or disband it. Maybe we will start to think of America as great again instead of one cog in a wheel.

[moonie42]

Maybe a renewed cold war will be the stimuli needed to get the complacent American population into the game. Maybe we will start to understand that "globalism" and "outsourcing" are not good for our nation on such a large scale and that we need to keep doing stuff domestically. Maybe we will begin to look at the UN for exactly what it is and get out of it or disband it. Maybe we will start to think of America as great again instead of one cog in a wheel.

I agree with you completely! Once the Cold War ended, we were left in a vacuum. What happens in a vacuum? Nothing. Look where that's gotten us!

[jjk308]

I'm just now hearing a report that Georgia was given a "green light" by "the west" (unspecified) to go ahead and assert control over South Osetia. This would be explosive if true. It would be worse than the Bay of Pigs.

By Russia? That's exactly what the Russians did in Chechnya!

Russia's shot itself in the foot doing this. You'll see Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and US missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic because of the Russian invasion. All the former USSR satellites are very upset.

[mnottfam]

In the Georgian capital Tbilisi, only El Al planes dare to land
It was not a smooth landing for the nearly empty El Al plane sent to evacuate the hundreds of Jews and Israelis who crowded together at the airport - and not just because of the old and rough runway. Only El Al dared land in the deserted airport of this capital Tuesday. The captain had even suggested Ankara or Baku as alternate landing spots, in case the plane could not descend in Tbilisi. In truth, more than anything I had hoped the captain would turn around and retrace his route and return in the same way he came. Who wants to land in a city that, just two days before, had been bombed by the Russians as a sign of what was to come? As the plane lowered, a Georgian shepherd raised his eyes skyward, amazed by the miracle: a plane full of passengers in Tbilisi's skies, as if the Russians never existed. (Haaretz, Gideon Levy, August 13, 2008)